Friday, September 5, 2008

Tuesday night's session

.02/.04 NL Hold 'Em - SB Played: 12-18 (67%) - BB Played 16-19 (84%) - Other Played 21-124 (17%) - Total Played 49-162 (30%) - Showdowns Won 5-8 (62%) - Other Wins 18 - Profit +$1.90

While I unfortunately have been too busy to play since then (including watching last night's never-in-danger win by the New York Football Giants), I logged a fairly long session on Tuesday, playing more than twice the hands I normally do in a single session. It had its ups and downs, but I finished with a decent profit in a situation where I very easily could have gone on tilt and donked off all my chips.

The thing is, it's a rookie mistake to correctly fold a hand, but then get upset when the junk you had would have ended up with two pair or trips. I like to think that for the most part, I can detach myself from that and remind myself that while it may have worked in the short term, it's definitely not a habit that one would want to get into. And, the worst thing that can happen when one plays poorly is to have temporary positive reinforcement accompany it. However, it's almost more than any sane person can take when this very thing happens, with no exaggeration, about 25-30 times in the span of 260 hands. That's just LUDICROUS. There was one hand, which I'll talk about in a bit, that was even worse. I had to fold a strong hand on the turn, and the river...well...you'll see.

Anyway, I had a strong start when I picked up A-K on the very first hand. I turned that into a .53 profit, which was good because I didn't see much for a while after that. I took a few shots with connecting cards, but whiffed on them all. Still, in the beginning (and for most of the session, actually), I did well enough on continuation bets to keep me afloat until the strong hands came. More accurately, I should say that in the beginning it was working a lot more than not. But, towards the middle of the session, I got my wrists slapped on more than one occasion. It got to the point where I had to close my eyes and keep firing off continuation bets even though each one was a bigger proportion of my stack than it was before. That's the thing...I feel like you have to do it even when you're down, or you just won't get the strong hands paid off well enough to put you at a profit for the overall session.

After a frustrating chop with A-10 (the other guy had the same hand), I picked up .91 with some very aggressive betting on a hand where I was almost surely beaten:

I picked up K-10 off-suit in the SB. With one limper, I raised up to 4X BB. Two called, the limper went away. Flop was Q-10-5 rainbow. I bet .56, right about pot-size. One customer stuck around to the turn, which was an Ace. With no flush possibilities (all four suits were on the board), I fired out another .60. I tried to make that bet big enough to have some heft to it, but still have that "please call me allure". I wanted that allure not because I actually wanted to get called (I think the guy probably had A-x or Q-x or something), but because I wanted to represent my straight getting there on the turn. The guy mucked pretty much instantly, and I took it down.

The next hand, however, was the frustrating one I alluded to before:

With 8-8 in late position, I limp along with four others. The flop was 10-8-6, two spades. It's a little straighty for my tastes, but I do like my set so far. One guy bets .24, another calls, so I raise it up to $1. Both guys call. Well, shit. The turn is a horrific 7. One guy checks, the other bets $1.62. At this point, anyone with a 9 in their hand has a made straight, so my set is looking fairly awful. I fold, the other guy calls. The river, of course, was the case fucking 8. The turn-raiser goes all-in for his last $1.34, the other guy folds. So, I lost $1.04 on a hand where I would have had fucking quads...if I had stuck around, I'd have profited around $6.78. That's a swing of $7.82, which would have put me at $13.26 for the session at the time. Awful, awful, awful. The worst part is that looking at this now, I wonder if this is as much of an automatic fold as I thought. I assumed that someone had a made straight, but what if the guy called my $1 raise with 8-7? He'd have second pair and a gutshot at the time, which these donks would certainly chase with. On the turn he'd have two pair and a gutshot, and on the river he'd have a full house. It's certainly possible, isn't it? He was in the BB, so he could have had 10-8, 10-6 or 8-6 as well. In a live game, with time to think about it, I may have called and had his whole stack. Sigh.

It got worse 9 hands later. A new player had sat down and had already gone all-in pre-flop once. He did it again when I had A-K in the BB, and I went into the tank for just about the whole allotted time. I feared A-A or K-K, but then again, he had done this once already. I've seen people do it with nonsense hands, and Gus Hansen's words in Every Hand Revealed about over-bets came into my mind: "The first time, I give them credit. If they do it again, that's when I start asking questions." So, I called, and the other guy showed Q-Q. Two live cards at least, but the board showed 6-5-3-5-2. Well fuck you too, Sportsbook.

At this point, I was tilting a bit, but I kept it under control somewhat. My roommate was railbirding for most of the session, and I think that helped me focus and get back into it. A lot of my problem with online poker is staying focused on the job at hand, but analyzing my play in real time by answering my roommate's questions and whatnot goes a long way towards getting around the tilt factor and keeping things on track. Still, with A-K again a few hands later, I probably overplayed it by going all-in for $1.75 when a King came on the turn. Better that than someone outdrawing me on the river, I suppose.

Lost a tough one with 6-5 (splashing around a bit there) when the flop came 10-10-6. I figured the other guy had two high cards like A-Q or something, so I fired a shell there, and again when the turn was a 2. After both were called, I checked the Jack river, and so did he...he showed 10-8. Of fucking course...but why not bet the river and get me out of there, so I don't get to see your hand? Maybe he had me on A-10 or something?

I started on the road to recovery when I won a decent pot with A-J, but I could and should have won more. I raised it up to 3X BB, and got three customers. Flop was A-10-3 rainbow. I bet .36, two stuck around for the turn, which was a 4. I checked, which was terrible. I don't know what out there was scary enough to do so...I think it was just dejection about how some of the previous hands went. One guy post-oak bluffed for just .04, both of us called (why didn't I raise?). The river was a 7, and I checked again - this time with the intention of check-raising if the other guy showed weakness. Again, he made that stupid .04 bet, but I only raised it up to .16. He called, and showed A-6 off-suit. I profited $1.26 on the hand, but it should have been much more...that was unusually timid on my part, and I don't even have a good explanation for it. At the very least, J-J on the next hand got me back up over $4.

I dipped back into the red for the next few hands, but I played my Ah-5s in the BB pretty well and banked a bit. I checked my option with 4 customers, and was stoked to see a flop of 8-5-3, all hearts. I bet .24, one opponent came along. The turn was a glorious 10h, and I checked it. This time, it wasn't out of timidity, it was to disguise the fact that I had a flush to win more on the river. The river was 8s, and the other guy felt safe enough to bet .34. I raised to $1 (probably should have been more to make it look like I was over-betting to steal), and he calls. He showed Ac-Qh, for a Queen-high flush. Looks like he was trying to trap too, but man oh man, this is why I never draw to a flush unless I have at minimum a King. I only wish I knew he was that strong though!

I was only in one other "TV hand". The rest of the time, the pattern was I didn't play many hands...looking at the hand history, I only seemed to be involved when I was in the blinds. That went for long stretches...at least 5-6 orbits. When I did, it was usually with connectors or medium-high cards, and I whiffed on most of them. That was made up for a weirdly-high number of wins from the blinds when I bluffed with nothing and fired shells on the flop, and made people go away. In one of the last hands I played, I had 4d-3d in the BB, and limped along with 5 others. The flop was 6d-4h-3h. One person bet .12, everyone called. The turn was a 9d, and I figured now was the time to turn it on, to make it look like I only had a flush draw. I bet .60, and surprisingly only got one customer. The river was a 10h, and I stupidly checked it. If the other person had bet, I may have fallen victim to my old nemesis of assuming that someone has it whenever a flush draw is completed on the board. They checked too, and showed Qd-Qc. I profited $1.18, but I very well might have folded and lost .72. It may not look like a big difference, but it's a $1.90 swing. One or two of those decisions, if made incorrectly, can turn a profitable session into a disaster...and vice versa. I think that's a concept that many of us at micro-limits haven't really grasped yet, in terms of understanding how big of an impact it is. No one is going to get 100% of these key decisions correct, but you MUST get the majority correct in order to win at this game. That's the fucking secret.

2 comments:

joe said...

Not to quibble with your math, but I don't think it's very likely the guy had 8-7 on the hand when you would have made quad 8s. It sucks that you would have taken his whole stack had you stayed in, but I think folding was the right move. It seems very likely to me that the guy who went all-in had the straight. If my math is right, you'd be putting in $1.62 to win, at that point, about $3.20. And you'd have, at best, ten outs (the case 8 and the remaming 10s, 7s and 6s) and probably fewer, given that the other guy likely had at least one of the cards on the board paired.

Now, losing with AK against QQ, that's just terribly unlucky.

Sean said...

I know I told you at the home game, but for the benefit of teh intarwebs:

6 people limped in, so the pot was .24 there. I raised to $1 on the flop, two called - $3.24. The turn bet was $1.62, the other guy called, making it $6.48. If I had stayed in, it'd be $8.10. His all-in bet on the river would have made it $9.44, not counting my bet to call it.

Out of that, I'd have profited $6.78, which is why I'm so pissed about it.

I do agree that the straight was more likely his hand, but I think his range of holdings has to include the ones I mentioned at least in theoretical terms. I know I was only a 4:1 shot to hit my boat, but there was so much money in there...I think Gus Hansen would have called. :)