Tuesday, September 9, 2008

More $5 Double-Up SNGs

5 $5 Double-Up SNGs - 3 money finishes, 1 bubble finish, 1 last-place finish. Profit: $3.00

Well, that wasn't quite the world-beating profit that I was expecting. I went out in the bubble on the first one in a horrendously frustrating run of cold cards, moneyed in the next three, then came back to play one more (after watching Raw) that I probably shouldn't have played in. However, I was just as cold-carded in that one as I was in the first. So, a decent profit became a barely-passable one just like that. I know I have to play with the long view in mind, but with just having to finish in 5th as the target, 3 cashes out of 5 seems to me like it's just not fucking good enough.

Here's the deal with these things - the tournament fee is a fairly lenient .40 for a $5 buy-in, considering that the $1 SNGs come with a .20 fee attached (AND you have to finish in the top three...AND you only profit .80 if you go busto in third). I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations, based on the truths that a loss nets you a loss of $5.40, while a win profits you $4.60. Of course, you have to win more than you lose - going one-for-one will have you 80 cents in the red for each round of two that you trade wins and losses. So, how much more do you have to win than lose to make a profit? It turns out that winning 6 for every 5 losses (55% winning percentage) will net you a whopping $.60 for each round of 11. Making that just one more each - 7 wins for every 6 losses (54%) will cause you to lose $.20 for every round of thirteen. Of course, I figure a player of my caliber (such as it is) should win 6 out of 10 minimum (If I have another 3-2 day when I do this again, I'd be at this mark), maybe more like 7 out of 10. The former is a $6 profit per round, the latter is $16 per round. So, my fellow micro-grinders, you may feel like the difference between one win and one loss is splitting hairs, but as you can see, the profits rise and fall very quickly among such small margins.

Anyway, some highlights from the five (I'll keep it short):

1st One:

- Got A-K in the first hand, My raise was called by two. Flop is J-high, my continuation bet is re-raised, and I muck quietly. The guy shows A-J. Well, shit.

- With 8-7 and a 9d-8s-5d board, my pot-sized bet is called. The turn is 10s, I make a bigger bet, and am check-raised all-in. If he did that with nothing (or even semi-bluffed with a flush draw), that's a hell of a play. I figure at best I'm up against a made straight, and even if I'm up against a flush draw, I don't have as many outs as I'd like because some of two of those 10s and two of those 6s would fill a potential flush. Fuck all that.

- I re-raise with K-J (and just $860 left, blinds still 15/30) to $120, and get tiny re-raised to $180. I have to call it, but the flop is total rags, and I'm just not bluffing at someone who re-re-raised before the flop. I check-fold. Good thing too, cause he showed A-A (which I haven't seen in a million billion years by now...400 hands or so and counting).

- I'm down to $535 (50/100) with A-J, and go all-in. The table can't muck fast enough. Of fucking course. I win some and get blinded down some, now it's 75/150 and I get Kh-Qs. I go all-in for my last $660, and get called by A-J. I end up rivering a spade flush to stay alive. We're on the bubble now, and I'm STOKED. I'm not even the short stack anymore.

- Finally, I go busto by probably overplaying 7-7. I was honestly hoping to just catch the blinds since we were up to 100/200, and I had the short stack at $1095. Some guy calls with A-Q, and FLOPS A FUCKING STRAIGHT. Gross. Then again, this is the same guy I rivered 8-10 hands ago, so I probably deserve it. Still, to be one away from the money...UGH. I should have went 4-1 AT MINIMUM tonight.


Second One:

- I did just enough over 21 hands to stay at around the starting $1500 mark. Hand 22 ended up unjustly rewarding my passive play where I had A-5 in the BB, bet $200 at the flop of A-K-2, then it was checked the rest of the way by my opponent and me to a 10 and a 8. All he had was a J-3 with one diamond, and three on the board. I gave him free cards like an idiot, but didn't pay for it.

- I did much better on Hand 32 (75/150) though, but probably should have profited more. With A-K and my pre-flop raise of $450, the flop came Ah-Ad-3s rainbow. First guy bet $150, call, I just click-raise. One fold, one call. The turn gave a 2h, so I answer his check with an all-in bet. I probably overplayed that one, too. Still, That pot got me to $3205, which is juuuuuuuuuuuuust about Easy Street in this scenario.

- I didn't seriously play another one until Hand 50 (100/200/25). I pick up K-K, 3X BB raise, and a short stack went all-in for about $400 more. Easy call, easy win against A-K. That got us to the bubble, and I had $4618. I wish they all could be like this!

- Then again, I doubled someone up when my A-Q lost to his A-5 when he rivered a four-on-the-board flush. Fuck's fucking sake. It was all over by Hand 56 though, and I had moneyed. Yay me.


Third One:

- Three go all-in on the first hand, and we're down to 8 right away. You can't ask much more than that in this setup.

- Brendan thought this was an overly-tight fold, but tell me what you think. It's Hand 10 (15/30), and I find Ad-Qc. I raise to $120, two more see the flop of Qs-8s-7s. First guy checks, I bet $180, and am immediately click-raised. Honestly, that feels like a value bet to me, and I peace out in relatively short order. It just seems to me like a great way to get busted out of the tournament very early. If I call that, I'm down to around $1000 chips, with the turn still to come. What happens if another Queen or an Ace come off? What the fuck do I do then? What if a fourth spade comes on the board? Brendan reckoned the guy likely had one spade in his hand and was stealing...my point was I don't want to find out when hopefully I can find a better spot later on.

BUT...now that I think about it, wouldn't a donk at this level just smooth-call if he had a made flush? I don't know. I think the four-flush was possible, but now my brain is telling me that he probably had something like 6s-5s, and didn't want another spade to come off in case I had one higher spade.

- We were on the bubble already by Hand 15-16 or so, and I just folded the waves and waves of shitty cards I got until I coasted into the money. Whoo...go me.


Fourth One:

- Once again, my cards were ice-cold to begin with. For much of the night (not just this tournament), I found myself limping in with unsuited connectors under the gun just so I didn't look like a total Rock of Gibraltar. I found myself down to $1000 or so when I couldn't call a huge post-flop raise with A-10 against a board of Q-Q-7.

- On Hand 20 (50/100), I gambled my tournament on firing a second continuation-bet shell at a scary board. Thankfully, the other bloke blinked first. I had A-4 in the BB, and saw the flop with 3 others. It came 7-5-4. I thankfully at least recognized that I didn't have a straight, and after one check, I fired $200 to try and take it down. One caller stuck around for the turn, which was a 6. They checked, and I went all-in for my last $720. It was right about the size of the pot, and if I was facing the usual check-call routine, I was probably dead. However, they mucked, and my stack was looking a lot better at $1520 after that.

- I traded one or two wins with some blind-downs until Hand 31 (75/150) when I picked up A-K. Well, fucking FINALLY. My pre-flop raise of $450 got one caller, and they mucked to a continuation bet on a 10-high board. Thank you for your donation.

- On the next hand, I picked up 9-9 and limped with it. The thing is, if I'm in a decent chip position, I don't want to get too crazy with these things. Remember, I'd already gone busto with 7-7 in my first tourney of the evening. The flop came A-K-6 with two diamonds, and everyone checked. The turn was the As, and now there were two draws out there. I figured that if no one else wanted the pot, I guess I'd go ahead and take it...and that's exactly what happened. I should have done it on the flop, though.

- By these standards, this thing was lasting FOREVER. One or two continuation bets and one or two timely walks kept my stack at around the high 2000s, but Hand 54 (200/400/25) sent me to La Rue de Facile. I got Ah-Jh, and flopped the nut flush! Score! Two had come along to the flop, and imagine my delight when the other guy bet into me! As Vince Van Patten would say on the World Poker Tour: "Showtunes are going off in his head, Mike! He can't believe his luck!". I gave it the Hollywood routine, even going so far as to dip into my Extra Time. I finally called. He checked the turn (a 5), and I did as well. The river was a Q, and he bet $400. I thought about it some more, and I figured with a bet that small, he didn't have much. I didn't think I could extract too much more out of him unless I looked weak as well, so I figured the weakest I could look was a click-raise. I was hoping he'd re-raise me all-in, but he just called. He probably didn't do so based on the fact that he had 8-7 with one heart. Holy donkey show, Batman!

- One hand later, someone went busto, and I was in the money for the third time in a row.


Fifth One:

- And then this fucking horror show happened. I was out in 10th, and I defy any other micro-grinder to do better. Since nothing of note for me really happened, I'm just going to list the starting hands I got:

Blinds 10/20: 10-4, 3-2, 9-3, 7-2, Q-8

Blinds 15/30: J-10 (limped, tried a continuation bet on a board of all hearts, was re-raised out), J-3 suited, 10-7, A-5, 3-2 suited, 9-4 suited

Blinds 25/50: 7-6, Q-4, Q-9, 7-7 (limped, flop was Jd-9-6d, folded to a bet and raise)

Blinds 50/100: J-9, Q-3, K-5, 10-5, K-5, 8-5

I still had $850 when it got to 75/150. I got A-K, went all-in, and 3-3 held up. Fuck you, Sportsbook.


Overall I guess I did all right with what I got. I don't really have the bankroll to play my normal aggressive game, and besides...the format does favor somewhat cagey play. You kind of need to get a decent hand somewhere (as Joe commented in the post below), but I think it's more about adjusting to the table. The loose, wild ones are rough for me because I depend so heavily on continuation bets. I probably won't do well at those until I get better at recognizing when someone is bluffing. The tighter tables though, the ones where I can continuation bet someone out every now and then (especially with a well-timed all-in bet on a scary board), those are the ones I'll do well at though. Will I get more of the latter (plus the odd one where I actually get some fucking cards to play with) outweigh the former enough for me to hit that 6-4 margin (or even better, the 7-3 split)? We'll find out as I do this more...5 tourneys is a shit sample size, but let's see where it's at when I'm up to 50 or so.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

KGB
Played 3 SNG @ $10 a pop.
Finished 2/3 in the money and was up like $8 then took $6 and played a $2000 MTT and finished 19th out of 480, so profit of $25. Fucking thing lasted till 2am.
Goodluck guys.

Anonymous said...

KGB
So I played 8 of those fuckers today and cashed in .... 2 lol so down $40. The breakdown.
1) AK vs AQ (loss) 70-30
2) AK vs AJ (loss) 70-30
3) AQ vs 55 (loss) 50-50
4) Open ended draw vs AQ (loss)
5) Cash
6) KQs vs A7 (loss)40-60
7) 77 vs KQ (loss)50-50
8) Cash

So I lost 3 coin flips and 2 times when I was dominating , and once when I was behind.

If I get one coin flip and one time when I was dominating I would break even.

The quality of play is horrible. Its fold fold fold and then all in fest when blinds go up.

I think I will limit to 2 per day if I even play these at all.

You were 100% right in you assesment.

Klopzi said...

"Brendan thought this was an overly-tight fold"

Good fold. Generally, you don't want to get into races in these SNGs. I wouldn't even play AQ at that stage of the SNG.

Klopzi said...

"I found myself limping in with unsuited connectors under the gun just so I didn't look like a total Rock of Gibraltar."

Don't do this. You want to be the rock in these things. The true value of your rocky image will pay off later if you're forced to push all in with any two cards and you're hoping that your opponents will fold.

Just trust me on this point. If you're not playing super-tight in these double-up SNGs (and in normal SNGs in the starting levels), you will lose money in the long-run.

SNGs are poker in the sense that you're playing with cards. That's where the similarities end, however.

Klopzi said...

For the record, your fifth SNG was well-played (except for the limp with JT).

I don't mind the limp with 77, as long as you're willing to fold if it's raised pre-flop.