Hand Deconstruction

So, as promised, I collected some of the worst hands from my Excel project to deconstruct in front of an audience of...well...the 2 or 3 people who read this. Without further ado, I think I'll start with THAT FUCKING STARTING HAND...

(Keep in mind that for the interest of space, I've deleted any non-necessary action such as non-principals folding.)

Seat 2: taho*** (9.97 in chips)
Seat 10: Swift29 (10.55 in chips) - 2 past the big blind
Dealt to Swift29 [ Ac Jh ]
Swift29: raises to $0.40
taho***: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ 7d 5c 6c ]
Swift29: bets $0.80
taho***: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ 8d ]
Swift29: checks
taho***: checks
&&& RIVER &&& [ Qh ]
Swift29: checks
taho***: bets $1.28
Swift29: folds
taho***: returns uncalled bet $1.28
*** SHOW DOWN ***
taho***: mucks
taho*** wins $2.45

I like to think that this was an intelligent check-fold, but with it being .5/.10 online, I just don't know. I figure a 4X BB pre-flop raise will at least get rid of the 8-5 type starting hands, but who knows? Part of my frustration with online play is that who the fuck knows what these idiots will call with? Anyway, as you can see, this was an awful flop for my hand. However, I am rarely afraid to make continuation bets, as it does pick me up my share of small pots. In this case, though, I don't know it was the right play...especially not for the pot-sized bet that I put out there. With three to a straight and two to a flush out there just on the flop, it's a minefield for my A-J offsuit. About the best I could hope for would be to see a free turn or pay minimally for the privilege and that another club comes out. At least in that case, I could hope to see a cheap/free river and catch the nut flush.

Worst of all, I could probably have gotten the same information for .30 or .40 that I did for .80. Even most super-donks would fold if they completely whiffed on that flop, but those same donks would likely call pretty much anything with even as low as third pair...a holding which, in this case, would have won the pot anyway. The turn was of course even worse for my cause, and at that point I was committed to the check-fold game plan. One thing I've noticed when these fuckers have a monster is that they don't bet out all that often...they check-call all the way down. While it's hilariously bad play, it does in a weird way obfuscate their hands a bit because they do the same thing whether they have third pair, a gutshot straight draw or even if they've flopped a full house.

That said, the river action makes me believe the guy had the monster - it's been my experience that someone hitting the "1/2 pot" button or even the "pot-size" button is usually a tell that they have something they like. It SCREAMS out "value bet" to me, and I'm always careful when they do it. I think he was praying that I had a Queen and that I'd call another 1.28 to see his straight. Well fuck you, buddy...you probably called my raise with 9-3 offsuit and got lucky. Bully for you.


Seat 5: choo*** (16.21 in chips)
Seat 10: Swift29 (9.35 in chips) Under the Gun
Dealt to Swift29 [ 3c 5c ]
Swift29: calls
taho***: calls
choo***: calls
Sens***: calls
vanl***: checks
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ 3h 4c Tc ]
vanl***: checks
Swift29: checks
taho***: checks
choo***: bets $0.28
Sens***: calls
vanl***: folds
Swift29: calls
taho***: folds
# # # TURN # # # [ 9h ]
Swift29: checks
choo***: bets $0.70
Sens***: folds
Swift29: calls
&&& RIVER &&& [ Ah ]
Swift29: checks
choo***: bets $1.40
Swift29: folds
choo***: returns uncalled bet $1.40
choo*** wins $2.69


OK, first of all, calling with 5-3 suited under the gun is a rookie fucking mistake and I'm embarrassed to even show you all this one. I love taking flops with those kinds of hands, but I have to get better at doing so when I at least have positional advantage...calling with it here is like bringing a dull scalpel to a rocket-launcher fight. Still, at least I lucked out and got a bunch of callers with no raises...these types of hands play well in multi-player pots, and you can usually get away from them cheaply if you whiff. The problem is, sometimes you hit just enough to keep you around. That's what happened here, and as you can see, I took a pretty good battering on this one.

Normally, this is the kind of flop you dream about with this hand - flush draw with a pair. There was 50 cents in the pot pre-flop, and the post-flop action (by the time it got to me) meant that I had to call 28 cents with a pot of 1.08. That works out to 3.9/1 for my money, so I figured I had to call there. The bettor went with a bet other than the 1/2 or pot buttons I was talking about above, so he may have been trying to steal. There seems to me in retrospect to be about an equal chance of that vs. something like 10-9, J-10, Q-10, K-10 or perhaps even 10-10. I don't think the set was all that likely because then he'd go to the check-call routine (most of these people aren't smart enough to see the danger when they have a set or two pair and there's four to a flush out there). I'll say that 10-9, J-10, Q-10 or total bluff are the two most likely options (though a bluff would beat me in a showdown cause, well, I'm sitting on five-high). In that case, there are 2 threes, 3 fives, and 9 clubs that can (in my mind) win it for me, for a total of 14 outs. In case you don't know the formula for converting outs to a ratio (with the turn and river still to go), here you go (where x = number of outs):

(46-x)/x = x:1

So, I had a 2.28:1 chance to win for 3.9:1 on my money. That's an insta-call, right? So far, so good. Even if the guy had two pair or a set, it wasn't the worst call of my poker career...I had a 4.1:1 chance to win.

The turn, to be quite frank, sucked a fucking dick. That was no help to me whatsoever, and keep in mind that in retrospect I had 10-9 as one of his likely holdings. Now, I had to call a 70-cent bet into a pot of 1.78 - that's 2.54:1 on my money. However, the number of outs I had could as easily now be 9 as it is 14. Let's look at both scenarios. The formula above would now change to (45-x)/x, as there is one less card in the deck. If he doesn't have a set or two pair, I'm now only 2.21:1 to win. If I need to catch the flush, it's even worse - it's a 4:1 shot exactly. Either way, this was the mistake of the hand - I should have cut my losses and chalked it up to yet another monster drawing hand that didn't pan out when the other guy had something he liked and would have fucking paid me off. *sigh*

Of course, the river was a total blank as far as I was concerned, and at that point there was no way I was calling any bet, let alone that big of one. While I played this OK until halfway through, I still lost 70 cents that I shouldn't have by calling on the turn.

Last one for this post:

Hand #1584012214000021: Paris 12214
Seat 1: nsho*** (5.90 in chips)
Seat 10: Swift29 (9.12 in chips) Under the Gun
Dealt to Swift29 [ Jh Qd ]
Swift29: raises to $0.50
nsho***: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ Td 7h 7d ]
Swift29: bets $0.60
nsho***: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ 9d ]
Swift29: checks
nsho***: bets $1.18
Swift29: calls
&&& RIVER &&& [ 8d ]
Swift29: checks
nsho***: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
nsho***: shows [ Kc Kd ] (Flush, King high)
Swift29: mucks
nsho*** wins $4.51 with Flush, King high
Swift29: mucks [ Jh, Qd ] (Flush)


This, on the other hand, was just fucking stupid all the way around on my part. It's funny how I spent the whole last post trying to convince you all that I'm not a total donkey, then I post this to completely circumvent that argument. Heh.

Anyway, let's count the mistakes, shall we?

1. That idiot Swift29 raised 5X the BB under the gun with a marginal hand like Q-J. Oh, dear.

2. Immediately after someone calls that high of a raise (which should at least have been a warning sign), I then bet out 60 cents on the flop. It's another case where 30 or 40 cents probably would have gotten me the same information - if he whiffed on the flop or thought I had the third 7 (which I think I was trying to represent there), he would have went away. If he had something he liked (or even four to a flush, as these people will call down to the ends of the earth with a flush or straight draw), he would have called and I'd have gotten the information that I needed to know. Still, I suppose the 60 cents is somewhat defensible as a continuation bet.

3. The turn ended up being the bait that turned this from a battering into a bloodbath. The 9d gave me an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw...enticing, right? However, this is where...you know...thinking and stuff about what the other guy has just maybe could be beneficial. The fact that he called the big bets pre-flop and post-flop meant he had to have something he really, really liked. Let's look at some of the reasonable holdings he could have had (including what he did, the K-K with a diamond) and see what my chances of winning were...and whether it was anywhere close to proper to call with a 1.18 bet into a 2.20 pot (1.86:1).

A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J (no diamond): This would actually have been the best scenario, as I'd have the most outs possible while being in no danger of facing a higher flush. Not only that, as an micro-stakes online player, he'd call down to the gates of hell with them, even with four to a different suit out there. Anyway, I'm looking at 3 non-diamond Kings, 3 non-diamond eights, and 9 diamonds to hit a hand that can beat this. If he had one King or two Kings, it'd be 1-2 less outs. The best case scenario would be, with all 15 outs, an exact 2:1 chance to win. Even then, for 1.86:1 on my money, it technically wouldn't be correct to call. If he had one King it would drop down to 2.21:1 to win, and K-K would mean it was 2.46:1. If he had A-A, you can take away the 3 non-diamond Kings as outs, as those would give him a higher straight. You can drop those winning chances even further down to 2.75:1 there. Terrible, terrible, terrible...and this is the BEST-case scenario. Sean, you are a fucking nimrod sometimes.

A-K (no diamond): A-K with no diamond would eliminate the six outs to hit a straight, as he would already have a higher one. A flush is all that will do, so with 9 outs, it's back to the 4:1 chance to hit your flush on the river. A call in that situation is just horrendous.

A-10, K-10, Q-10 (no diamonds): K-10 would be the same 2.21:1 chance as above, while A-10 and Q-10 would be the same 2:1 chance as above.

10-10: A set would definitely explain both his calls, and I'd have the same 2:1 chance as above.

A-x, K-x, including big hands like A-A, K-K, A-10, K-Q, etc (with a diamond): Any big hand with an A or K diamond or even any A-Rag/K-Rag hand with the Ace or King of diamonds means I'm drawing to just a few outs. How few? Well, you can forget hitting the flush, because my Q-high flush is useless in the face of that. There are a few sub-scenarios here, and none of them are pretty:

Ad-Q/Ad-J/Kd-Q/K-d-J: In this case, three of my outs are gone because I hit a pair with the Q or the J depending on which he had, then with the pair of 7s on the board, we'd both have two pair and his kicker would play. In this case, I'm down to the 3 of the one that he doesn't have, and 3 eights for the straight. Here, I'm a distant 6.5:1 to win.

Ad-A/Kd-K: This is the one he ended up having, with the cowboys. The flush is out the window because of his higher diamond, so I have the 3 eights for the straight and the 3 (or 2) Kings left. With A-A it's the same 6.5:1 as above, and with K-K (again, what actually happened), I'm an appalling 8:1 to win. Can you see why I'm beating myself up so badly over this one?

Finally, the worst case scenario: If he had Ad-xd or Kd-xd, I was drawing ABSOLUTELY STONE FUCKING DEAD.

Now, of course I didn't know exactly what he had, and any of the above seems just as reasonable a holding to me as the others, given that this is online micro-stakes and all. If you take the average ratio to win out of all of these, you end up with a final tally of 3.64:1 for a chance at 1.86:1 on my money.

I'm not usually this bad of a player, but this hand was brutally, brutally bad on my part.

More hands coming up soon...