Hand Deconstruction, Part 2

In anything, be it hockey when I was a kid, or soccer or poker or the Wrestler application on Facebook now, I have never taken to losing very well. Never. I have the memories of broken sticks and yellow cards and hurled sunglasses to prove it.

The thing is, a lot depends on how the first couple of hands go. It’s weird, but it’s true. In soccer, if we’re warming up before the game and I make a couple of good saves right off the bat, I usually end up playing to the best of my ability...I get a kind of swagger and I don’t think too much about things. I just react and I end up amazing myself with the saves I end up making in the actual game. I think about it later and I can’t believe my body actually did that or I reacted THAT quickly. But, if I end up letting one dribble through my legs or if I fuck one up some other way, it stays in my head for the whole game and I’m much more likely to make some kind of awful mistake when it actually matters. Same thing with poker...if I win a few small pots or a big one early in the session, it becomes like a boulder rolling downhill...I become almost unstoppable. It’s not that all of a sudden I make better decisions on marginal hands (though sometimes that is the case, where I make gutsy calls or good folds I wouldn’t have done otherwise), it’s just that I’m much better suited to playing from a position of strength. I make a great table captain, but I have a very difficult time buckling down and coming back from a third or a half of my stack down (incidentally, this may also be why I’m a mediocre tournament player). That’s one of the many things I have to work on.

Furthermore, the fact that you only have 15 seconds or whatever to act definitely favors either the complete moron or the person whose game is absolutely airtight and who can run through all of this in their head in seconds. I’m not there yet, so there’s another reason for the constant struggle. In person, I have time to think, and I have my fairly-decent people-reading ability to fall back on. In this environment though, it’s like trying to play inmates at the loony bin while hopped up on amphetamines.

Before I get to the hands - I haven't had a chance to start linking to other sites yet, but I have had a few comments about how refreshing it is to see a micro-stakes blog. I ran into this while on Poker News, and it looks like it'll be worth a read once he really gets going: http://my.pokernews.com/FishFood/blog/.

Hand 1:

Seat 3: qiao*** (3.85 in chips)
Seat 7: 9889*** (6.43 in chips)
Seat 10: Swift29 (8.04 in chips)
Swift29: posts big blind $0.10
Dealt to Swift29 [ Td Jd ]
qiao***: calls
9889***: calls
Swift29: raises to $0.30
qiao***: folds
9889***: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ Ah Jc 7c ]
Swift29: bets $0.60
9889***: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ 8h ]
Swift29: checks
9889***: checks
&&& RIVER &&& [ Kh ]
Swift29: bets $0.80
9889***: calls
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Swift29: shows [ Td Jd ] (Pair of Jacks )
9889***: shows [ Qc Kd ] (Pair of Kings )
9889*** wins $3.40 with Pair of Kings

Why the fuck did I check the turn when firing another shell may have gotten rid of him, but yet fired at the river when there were TWO overcards to my pair? The person had something they liked to call two bets – what the fuck did I think they had? I have a real problem with giving up on the turn if my continuation bet on the flop is called...but then again, these people check-call all the way when they have a monster! What do you fucking do at this level? Maybe I thought they would have called anyway with two different flush draws out there, though looking back I wonder if another good bet on the turn would have made them give up. This player is also from China, and they’re all loose and insane, even by micro-stakes standards – keep that in mind.


Hand 2:

Seat 1: nsho*** (7.23 in chips)
Seat 7: 9889*** (8.38 in chips)
Seat 10: Swift29 (6.19 in chips)
Swift29: posts small blind $0.05
nsho***: posts big blind $0.10
Dealt to Swift29 [ 9h 7d ]
9889***: calls
Swift29: calls
nsho***: checks
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ 6h 7h 8c ]
Swift29: bets $0.40
nsho***: folds
9889***: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ 9s ]
Swift29: bets $0.90
9889***: calls
&&& RIVER &&& [ Kh ]
Swift29: checks
9889***: bets $1.45
Swift29: folds
9889***: returns uncalled bet $1.45

The 5-cent call out of the SB was a no-brainer, and the 40-cent call wasn’t too bad, though it could as easily have been 20 or 30. This is the same crazy Chinese player, but they can’t be so mad as to call with just a pair, could they? What wasn’t defensible was, after the 40-cent flop bet was called, betting another *90* cents on the river. The call meant they had something they liked, and four to a straight out there almost guaranteed that they had a made straight. Now, if I had checked and the other person had checked, I could at least try and show down the two pair and hope I got lucky. Or, if fortune really smiled on me, maybe I'd donk out and catch my four-outer for the boat. If the other person made some kind of big bet, then I was probably beaten and I could have saved myself quite a few chips.

On the off chance that they were in there with A-A or K-Q or something, well, then all I can do is tip my cap to a great/crazy bluff and a gigantic set of balls.


Hand 3:

Hand #1454011532000172: Calgary 11532
Seat 1: mrsw*** (3.38 in chips)
Seat 9: Swift29 (10.75 in chips) (small blind)
Dealt to Swift29 [ Kd 8d ]
mrsw***: calls
CG L***: calls
smp5***: calls
Humm***: calls
Swift29: calls
VT B***: checks
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ 2d Kc Td ]
Swift29: bets $0.80
mrsw***: is all in 3.1800
Swift29: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ Tc ]
&&& RIVER &&& [ Jc ]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mrsw shows A-K
mrsw*** wins $7.21 with Two Pairs, Kings and Tens with Ace kicker

I called an all-in bet with that? Is this defensible? Unlike the post before, I think in this case my flush was good no matter what unless they had Ad-xd. If they had that, more power to them. The pot was 1.80 after my 80-cent bet, and they bet slightly less than double that. These donks only ever make this play when they have an absolute monster, so about the only reasonable holdings were A-A, K-K, K-Q, K-J, K-10, 10-10, 2-2. I have to call $2.38 to win $4.98 (2.09:1), and in these scenarios:

A-A, 10-10, 2-2: I’m going to assume that even if one of the Aces was the Ad, that two running diamonds were not going to come out. In that case, for all three opposing holdings I have two Kings, 3 eights, and 9 diamonds that will win. 14 outs = 2.28:1. Not the worst call ever, still not correct.

K-K, K-Q, K-J, K-10: The two Kings are out, so just the 12 outs. 2.83:1.

This wasn’t as egregiously bad as I thought before I ran the numbers, but still not a great call...especially with so much money on the line. I haven't made too many mistakes at .10/.20, but this was definitely one of them.


Hand 4:

Hand #1519012454000409: Paris 12454 (.5/.10)
Seat 1: AXEL*** (3.30 in chips)
Seat 2: medi*** (18.29 in chips)
Seat 10: Swift29 (10.10 in chips) (big blind)
Dealt to Swift29 [ Kc Ks ]
AXEL***: raises to $0.35
medi***: calls
DI T***: calls
Swift29: raises to $1
AXEL***: calls
medi***: calls
DI T***: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ Ts 2s Qc ]
Swift29: is all in 9.1000
AXEL***: is all in 2.3000
medi***: calls
DI T***: folds
Swift29: shows Kc Ks
AXEL***: shows Kh Jh
medi***: shows 2c 2d
# # # TURN # # # [ 4c ]
&&& RIVER &&& [ 3d ]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
medi*** wins $12.94 with Three of a Kind, Deuces
*** SHOW DOWN ***
medi*** wins $10.41 with Three of a Kind, Deuces

Here’s another wonderful thing about online donkfests. I re-raise to TEN FUCKING TIMES the BB pre-flop, and THREE people call. UGH. Unless you have A-A or K-K, how do you call that? Q-Q would only be defensible if you put the other guy on A-K, and for me, J-J goes right into the muck unless you’re fucking retarded. In this hand, two people call 65 more cents with K-J and 2-2. Oh. My. Fucking. God. That said, why go all-in after the flop? Just on the off-chance that someone donked out on me, why did I do that and lose more chips than I should have? And, if someone hadn’t donked out on me yet and was going to chase something dumb, wouldn’t that have chased them out when chances are I could have extracted more money from them? So, that was the main mistake there, I suppose.

So, I went all-in, and BOTH people called. As it turned out, that poster child for abortion had called my pre-flop raise with 2-2, and hit his miracle two-outer. K-K vs. 2-2 pre-flop is 82%-18% in favor of the cowboys, and if I have my math right, that works out to something like 4.2 or 4.3:1. With my all-in bet, he was getting 2.73:1 on his money ($2.30 into a pot of $6.30), so there’s no possible way to defend his call...especially with someone else in the hand (even if you want to go the implied-odds route and assume that the second retard would call, he still was only getting 3.74:1)! I mean, first off, what did he think I had? With any pocket pair, he was in a whole world of trouble. Even if I were a total moron and had re-raised that much with 3-3, I still had him dominated to the tune of 78%-17%! He must have thought I had two overcards, and he was willing to half of his big stack on a race situation. He would be a 52-48 favorite against A-K, K-Q, etc. However, that doesn’t take into account that there was still yet another moron in the hand as well! It’s one thing to duck two overcards, but three? Four? It essentially doesn’t matter what either of our hands were – against 2-2, there are at least three and more likely four overcards to duck unless we happened to have the same exact hand. Even if we both had, hmm...A-K, he’s still probably only a 65% favorite or so (and that is the most generous and unlikely situation possible).

Speaking of this other moron, he ended up calling the rest of his stack with K-J! Even though it was SOOTED, there were no hearts out there on the flop, so he couldn’t even catch a flush! Wow! All he had in all likelihood was the open-ended straight draw...he couldn’t possibly think he’d win the pot if a Jack came off based on the fact that I bet NINE FUCKING DOLLARS AND TEN CENTS at it, with a dollar pre-flop raise before that (and one ass-bandit who called the $9.10)! Even with a King, any reasonable person would think they would probably be out-kicked. And, the worst thing was I would have had a nice profit of all of his stack if that other stupid bastard piece of shit douche-rocket hadn’t called the pre-flop raise with his pair of twos. Assuming that someone had done the world a favor and tossed Medi into a spinning set of helicopter blades previous to him signing on for this session, I’d have picked up a nice pot here.

If there were any justice in this world, I would have caught a King or a running Ace-Jack and raped that motherfucker of half of his chips. But, that’s poker, I suppose...at least down here in the micro-limit slums.



Hand 5:

Seat 1: Swift29 (9.90 in chips)
Seat 8: Sere*** (9.58 in chips) (big blind)
Dealt to Swift29 [ Qd Kd ]
jdav***: raises to $0.50
Sere***: calls
Swift29: calls
420L***: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ 2d Qc Td ]
Swift29: bets $2.10
Sere***: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ 3h ]
Swift29: bets $3.80
Sere***: is all in 6.9800
Swift29: calls
&&& RIVER &&& [ Ac ]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Sere*** wins $19.21 with Three of a Kind, Tens

Later on in that same game, after I had reloaded for another $10. This is another case of me over-playing a pair plus a flush draw. Some guy raised to 5X the BB, and with another person having already called, I think a call was reasonable getting 3:1 on my money with K-Q suited. The person after me calling made it 4:1, so even better!

The flop was an excellent one to my hand, with the aforementioned top-pair/decent-kicker and the second-nut flush draw. I bet just a tad more than the pot, because with 4 people in there I wanted to get rid of other drawing hands...and, honestly, I was kind of hoping to just take it down right there. The BB was the only one to call, but with only A-A, K-K, A-Q, K-Q, Q-Q, Q-10 and 10-10 ahead of me at the time, I thought I was in fairly good shape. However, all of those are very reasonable hands to call a 5X BB raise with (at least here in micro-land), and in a real-life setting a bunch of those would have meant a re-raise before the flop anyway (at which point my K-Q suited probably goes directly into the muck).

However, the call at that point should have told me something was up. Still, there were a pretty decent range of hands that I was ahead of (A-10, K-10, Q-10, Q-J, J-10, 10-9, maybe even 9-9, 9-8 or a low pocket pair if they were a total maniac). With the last two cards still to come, I figured that another King, another Queen or any of the 9 diamonds left would win me the hand. 2.06:1 is pretty nice in most cases, so I don’t think I did much wrong up to that point.

The 3h was of course useless to both of us, but it lowered my winning chances down to exactly 2:1. It’s not much of a change, so I still thought I was in fairly good shape. Of course, I haven’t mentioned yet the chances involved of winning the hand with what the opponent actually had, 10-10. In that case, the two-pair option is a no go, so it’s just the 9 outs for the flush. Before the turn it would be 4.1:1, and after the turn it’s 4:1 exactly. Those aren’t great odds, but again, the only opposing hands that would lay me those odds were Q-Q, 10-10 and 2-2. After the flop, against a random hand, my pair-plus-flush draw has a 90% chance to win against a random opposing hand. So, perhaps my post-turn aggression wasn’t the dumbest thing ever, but this was against an opponent who had called a fairly healthy post-flop bet.

I think, in retrospect, I had put my opponent on a straight draw. When the harmless turn fell, I guess I was just value-betting to see if they would be dumb enough to actually call it. Imagine my surprise when the son of a bitch went all-in for their last $6.98! At that point, the only thing you can put them on is a set or two pair, minimum. Maybe on the outside they have A-Q, but I’m behind at this point by any reasonable assumption. The way I remembered it, I think I insta-called probably more out of a combination of frustration (remember, I was Tilty McTilterson after the hand above) and impulsiveness more than anything else. How dumb was that play? Well, at this point I’m definitely dead to just the 9 outs for the flush...with one card to come, it’s a 4:1 chance to hit. The all-in bet meant calling another $3.18 into a pot of $16.98. Huh...that’s actually 5.33:1 on my money, so it turns out that was the correct call...I didn’t remember it that way, but it does make me feel a little better. Still, part of me wonders whether I should have checked the turn to see what happened, but then again, wouldn’t that be conceding the initiative to the other person? If they go all-in at that point, it’s $6.98 into a pot of $13.18, or 1.89:1...and it’s an insta-fold of a hand that just may have been ahead.

I guess if I’m being honest with myself, this wasn’t entirely a fuck-up on my part, but to have this happen so soon for all my chips right after going busto on the hand noted above...it’s more than a man can take sometimes.